What is North Korea thinking?
News Story in a nutshell: North Korea has shredded the peace agreement with South Korea, and threatened to attack the United States and South Korea. It has also said it is in a "State of War" with South Korea In fact, as we speak it is readying several missiles and the US would "not be surprised" (According to CNN) if North Korea attacked South Korea or even Guam in the United States. In fact, the US has set up missile defenses in Guam and has said that it cannot guarantee the safety of those in its embassies past April 12th (if I remember rightly, according to Fox News).
Commentary: What are they thinking?! Assuming for a moment that one was rational, which the leader of North Korea clearly isn't: Both Afghanistan and Iraq were blown away within days of their initial invasions. Qaddafi was blown away in Libya, and that was without the US directly leading NATO forces. The North Korean leadership, which showed-albeit for a brief moment--promise towards modernization, has proved itself to be more insane (from my perspective) than its predecessor, Kim Jong Il.
If North Korea launches a missile at either South Korea or Guam, the most likely scenario would be that a drone will be used to take out the leaders of North Korea. Why a drone? Because to do a land invasion would be costly. In fact, the the US decides to do a land invasion, it could wind up like the Korean War all over again. Thus and therefore, it is safer to take out the North Korean military with a drone and be done with it.
Even China, who is the only nation that is on speaking terms with the increasingly isolated North Korea, has said that what North Korea is doing is unacceptable and has already joined in on at least one UN resolution against North Korea.
If North Korea continues down this path, it may be the endgame for a regime that has oppressed its people, jailed them, and has continued to starve them. In this case, the United States could definitely dress it up as a humanitarian mission, much like in Libya. In fact, it is increasingly unlikely that North Korea's leadership will survive this as we speak, should they launch a missile at neighboring South Korea or at Guam.
I don't think that North Korea will attack . . . for the simple reason that they're telling their citizens that they already have. This is a staged war for the populace, complete with doctored photos claiming to be marching down the street in America.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea, I infer, is desperate to keep hold over its population, and is resorting to one of the oldest tricks in the book: a war to stay in power. But they can't actually fight any of their neighbors, so they're *faking* a war for the cameras. All their talk is for their own side's ears, and no one else's, and they'll continue to brag about how they're supposedly "at war" with us for as long as they can, even as nothing continues to happen in reality.
At least, they'll do that until they're overthrown . . .